As geopolitical tensions around the Russia-Ukraine war continue to ripple across the globe, former U.S. President Donald Trump has set his sights on India. His message: stop buying oil from Russia — or face increased tariffs. But Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi isn’t backing down.
A Diplomatic Balancing Act Turns Contentious
India has walked a diplomatic tightrope since the start of the Ukraine conflict, maintaining strong relations with both Washington and Moscow. While Modi’s government insists it remains neutral, its continued purchase of Russian oil is testing the patience of Western allies — especially Trump, now back in office and vocal about enforcing economic consequences.
In a recent CNBC interview, Trump vowed to “substantially” raise tariffs on India within 24 hours, citing its ongoing Russian oil imports. This comes on top of a previously announced 25% tariff on Indian goods, signaling a shift in U.S.-India relations under Trump’s second term.
Why India Still Relies on Russian Oil
Photo Credit :- economictimes
India is the third-largest consumer of oil globally and imports nearly 80% of its oil needs. With a population exceeding 1.4 billion and a fast-growing economy, affordable energy is essential.
Russian crude now accounts for 36% of India’s oil imports — a statistic that underscores its critical role. India argues this decision is based on economics, not politics, and that other countries, including the U.S. and EU, continue trading with Russia in areas like fertilizers and chemicals.
Can India Replace Russian Oil?
Simply put — not easily. India once imported oil from Iran and Venezuela, but U.S. sanctions under Trump forced a halt to those deals. Now, Russia provides discounted crude that traditional suppliers don’t match. Eliminating it would require alternatives that don’t currently exist at scale.
| Factor | Russian Oil | Middle East Oil |
|---|---|---|
| Price | Discounted | Market Rate |
| Availability | Readily available | Limited spare capacity |
| Strategic Impact | Supports Moscow financially | Keeps India in Western fold |
| Domestic Political Risk (India) | Low (economic focus) | High (potential inflation) |
India is now caught between preserving its economic momentum and facing pressure to align with Western sanctions.
Economic Fallout: A Global Concern
Trump’s plan may backfire. India exports refined petroleum products made from Russian oil — including to the U.S. and Europe. Disrupting this supply chain could spike global fuel prices, increase inflation, and hurt consumers worldwide.
In 2023 alone, India exported $86.28 billion in refined oil products, becoming the world’s second-largest petroleum exporter. Much of this oil originates from Russian crude, refined on Indian soil to bypass sanctions.
Historic Ties Add Complexity
India and Russia’s relationship dates back to the Cold War. Moscow has long been New Delhi’s key arms supplier, and even today, India remains Russia’s top weapons buyer. Despite strengthening military and trade ties with the U.S. in recent years, India has not fully pivoted westward.
Even Trump and Modi’s once-celebrated friendship appears to be cooling. While Trump hailed Modi as a close ally in 2019, recent posts on Truth Social reveal growing frustration.
“They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care,” Trump declared, criticizing India’s role in “propping up” Russia’s economy.
India’s Strategic Path Forward
Modi is unlikely to make an abrupt policy shift. While India continues to explore alternatives like increased Middle East imports, it insists changes must be gradual. For now, Delhi remains committed to diversified sourcing — but Russian oil remains a pillar of its energy strategy.
Conclusion:
The clash over India’s Russian oil imports marks a pivotal moment in global trade and diplomacy. With Trump upping the pressure and Modi standing firm, the world watches closely — as oil, alliances, and inflation hang in the balance.
